The State of the Economy Can Be Accurately Predicted by Women’s Shoe Buying Habits!

A skeptic you say? Here is a true story borrowed from an article in the Chicago Tribune by Barbara Brotman. Turns out there is good evidence that the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be predicted very well by the Nordstrom’s Shoe Index (my favorite shoe store as well!)

"The biggest swing in spending has been in retailers, such as Saks and Nordstrom, that target high-income consumers, a pickup that coincided with the rally in the stock market." — economist Michelle Meyer.

The science of economic analysis has taken a leap forward with the discovery of a new, highly accurate economic indicator: The Nordstrom Shoe Index.

Economists were intrigued to find that statistics on consumers' attitudes toward the economy coincided with the actions of a single consumer in Chicago. Taking a closer look, they found that they could track consumer confidence and its resulting influence on the nation's economy simply by following this consumer's interactions with the shoe department at Nordstrom.

The phenomenon came to light during a recent surge in consumer confidence. Barbara relates that she happened to be at Nordstrom buying eye shadow. Something, possibly a premonition of consumer confidence, drew her to the nearby shoe department. She began browsing high-heeled sandals, though she did not need a pair of high-heeled sandals, as her husband would later point out. But then she saw them: brown leather sandals with that thick-strapped look that stops just short of dominatrix, strips of leather accents in a fetching shade of salmon and a breathtakingly high heel.

She bought them.

The Nordstrom Shoe Index spiked.

The same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 21 points.

The purchase also mirrored the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which in April reached its highest point since September 2008.

Analysts noting the Nordstrom Shoe Index phenomenon were particularly cheered at the price the Nordstrom Shoe Indexer paid — $224.95. They reasoned that consumer confidence had to be surging pretty high for anyone to spend that much on a pair of sandals.

Moreover, the increase in the Nordstrom Shoe Index was accompanied by a high Lying to Spouse score. When her husband asked how much the sandals cost, the consumer claimed they were only $180. Though this still resulted in an increase in the Spousal Irritation Industrials, analysts noted that 20 percent represented an impressive level of lying, significantly above the routine 5 percent spousal lie discount.

However, stock market bears warned of a correction. And sure enough, within days, the Nordstrom Shoe Indexer began to have buyer's regret.

Trying on the shoes at home to defend the "$180" purchase to her spouse, she realized that the heel was so high as to cause intense pain, and not just because of the bunion problem. The heels threw her entire body onto the balls of her feet. She could barely walk in them.

For two days, she vacillated. (Really? Why do we do this to ourselves over cute shoes?)

In the same time span, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 236 points

She brought the shoes into the office one day and tottered along a carpeted hallway, trying to decide whether she could take the pain. An economics debate broke out when several female colleagues stopped to say that her shoes were darling. Upon learning of the pain problem, some counseled her to be practical and return them. Others argued she should man up and wear them no matter how much they hurt because they were so white hot. (Pick some new friends!)

The Dow Jones, aka the Jimmy Choo, rose 49 points, apparently on hope of persuasion.
The direction of the nation's economy hovered in limbo as the Nordstrom Shoe Index progenitor agonized. Stock brokers chain-chewed antacids. Hedge fund managers gnawed on their fingernails. Institutional investors fanned themselves.

Finally, the indexer decided that she couldn't justify spending $224.95 on shoes she could wear only while sitting at her desk.

On Friday, she made the call: Back they would go.

The Nordstrom Shoe Index plummeted.

The Dow Jones dropped 173 points the same day. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index fell 20 points.

Some analysts use complex mathematical formulas to predict the behavior of the economy. Some stock-picking experiments have tried dart boards.

The Nordstrom Shoe Index, however, has earned its place in the economic indicator pantheon. A nation searching for signs of financial direction should consider this:

Barbara laments that she still want a pair of really cute, but lower-heeled, sandals.

Ladies…we all knew our shoe shopping habits were important, but now we know the economy depends on it!

Shop On!

Is Your Metabolism Happy?

Why is it that so many people complain that they eat very little, but are still overweight? I have many triathlete friends that eat way better than I do, yet can’t seem to tame the belly bulge. Then there are people like me that eat everything in sight, and never seem to gain weight. We complain that during times of extreme training that we are hungry constantly and work hard not to drop too much weight! No one feels sorry for us! What’s up with that?

Your metabolism is the key. Most people are somewhere between the two extremes. Their intake, metabolism and output are on a roller coaster ride. If only you can tame the metabolism beast, healthy weight and better performance will follow.

How can we make our metabolism happy? The answer is a healthy, consistent diet and regular exercise routine. The key word is consistent! Food becomes energy at the rate our metabolism dictates. Exercise utilizes this energy at a more efficient rate if our metabolism is fast and happy.

This is not only the key to getting stronger, faster and more efficient but also the million dollar answer for weight loss! Losing weight means taking in less than you put out. You have to take into account your personal BMR (basal metabolic rate) which is one part genetics, one part age and many parts lifestyle habits! Seems simple enough; but if you are on a constant fad or crash diet, your body’s BMR is very low. Hence, you burn much less at rest than a hyper runner like me who eats constantly! I love my BMR! I burn more calories when sleeping than the average person!

So what does all this mean? A person who eats very little but can’t lose weight probably has a slow BMR and is often sluggish in their energy output; while in contrast a person with a fast EMR can eat more calories, utilize them more efficiently and have a higher energy out put!

The formula "energy plus metabolism equals output" means that all three react synergistically. High output is always desired, so in order to affect output, more energy either has to come in, or metabolism has to speed up, or both. Metabolism tends to be the limiter in most cases, since we can choose how much to eat. The volume of output can also be manipulated through programming our metabolism to be happier.

How do we affect our metabolism to achieve our goals? The most logical means to improve metabolism is to do more work. Increase your exercise in either duration or intensity. This will encourage your body to pick up the pace!

Many times your metabolism is low genetically and environmentally for many years and is stubborn to move. It is clinically depressed! The way to jolt it into action is not through starvation, which is often a knee-jerk response to the problem. Steady and consistent eating habits will be supported by good and steady energy inputs and high-energy outputs.

It makes sense that we need to increase our output and eat sensibly and consistently in order to change long-term trends. It is important to remember, this is a gradual process, so a commitment to the course of action is necessary.

Small consistent meals five or six times a day with a gradual increasing exercise program over a period of months leading to years will help kick your metabolism back into its happy place! Patience and discipline are the two primary rules of metabolism repair mechanism.

Almost all of us can improve what we're doing at some part of this equation. Grade yourself honestly. Is your metabolism happy and trusting? Is there enough energy? Is there enough exercise? Too much? Is your metabolism depressed and mad at you having been starved and stuffed with bad food and bad habits? Is there enough energy coming in and where is it going? Where can you improve?

Make your metabolism happy for better race results and an added bonus of a better waist line!

The Barefoot Running Debate Continues

Here we go again....More questions about the benefits of barefoot running. A new biomechanics study concluded that pronation was more controlled in unshod subjects than those that wore shoes. No conclusions were made on whether this translated to less injuries and no long term study of the subjects was performed. Bottom line, in a small group study, the barefoot runners were seen to pronate less than those that were wearing shoes. What does this mean? Not much. More studies of larger groups and over a longer period of time need to be performed, but barefoot running may be a tool to strengthen your feet. Let me emphasize the words "May" and "Tool". Which means a part of your training program, not a license to go chuck your shoes and just head out the door. Let's look a little closer at the recent study:

Some of the reasons which were indicated by the researchers for this healthful barefoot advantage to runners include:

1. The tendency of the foot to flex more while running barefoot.
2. The fact that the foot moves around inside a running shoe less than was originally believed.
3. The distribution and frequency of the ground’s impact forces on the foot has a better and less stressful pattern on bare feet.

All good, valid points. Personally I'm sticking to my Newtons to strengthen my feet and I have an orthotic in them to control my late stage pronation in my forefoot. Without that, I get hurt! But that's just me.

So you want to try barefoot running? A good test to see if you are a good candidate is to balance on one foot on your forefoot, keeping your heel in the neutral (perpendicular to the ground) position and hold that for one minute. If you can do this, you can start a gradual progression to barefoot running. I would go buy a pair of Five Finger Vibrams to protect the sole of your feet, then start with no more than 5 minutes on a track or softer trail surface. See how you feel. Then progress no more than 10 percent no more than 3 days a week. It will take you at least 6 months to work your way up to a reasonable time and pace. (And I still think its crazy, but again....just my personal opinion)

If you want to go totally barefoot without a pair of Vibrams, then you should take careful precautions before running completely barefoot. You must ensure that the track or path you’re running on is a non-abrasive surface, and is completely free of sharp or dangerous objects. Barefoot running is best done on a track with a smooth but tractable surface which you have personally inspected and removed any objects which could cut or damage your foot during running, and learning to run barefoot is a skill and must learned-slowly. SLOWLY!!!

I still think the jury is out on barefoot running. It is the latest fad which may or may not stick, but for those that want to try it.....take my advice and go really really slowly down that path. Most of the injuries we see from barefoot running are from progressing way to quickly!